Upscale house flipping increasing

During the first 6 months of 2012, over 100,000 upscale homes were flipped. This was an increase of +25% over 2011. Low home resale inventories, causing a lack of top quality homes, has flipping upscale homes growing in the housing market. Flippers include local developers as well as investors. The returns on flips well outpace the small profits earned on bonds and savings accounts...which is next to nothing.  Upscale flips may take longer to do, but the returns can be substantial when done well.

Unemployment benefit seekers down

Those people seeking unemployment benefits over the past month dropped to the lowest level since March 2008. The Labor Department reported applications dropped by 12,000 weekly to a seasonally adjusted 350,000 for the week ended December 22nd.

interest rates dropped last week

The average rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage dropped to 3.35% from 3.37 the week before. The rate on a 15 year mortgage was unchanged at 2.65%.

Consumer confidence dropping

For the second month in a row, consumer confidence dropped. In  December it fell to 65.1 down from
71.5 in November. Fears about the "fiscal cliff" and higher taxes are credited with this reversal.

New home sales increase in November

New home sales increase +4.4% in November. This is the best rate of increase since since April 2010 when federal tax credits boosted home sales.

Soft Christmas sales cause worry

Economists are looking at the +.7% growth in sales this Christmas season as a sign of a continuing weak economy as compared to the +3-4% that was expected. Retailers slashed prices trying to lure people in but that did not help. Now, the retailers are hoping the post Christmas sales will be strong and make up for some of the short fall.

63 New Florida judges needed

The Florida Supreme Court has cited the need for 63 more judges. Foreclosures continue to clog court rooms. Diminished staff personnel who were cutback in this poor economy has meant judges must to more of the detail work to move cases forward. The court noted" workload associated with the residential mortgage foreclosure crisis continues to impede disposition times and rates in our civil divisions." This need for 63 judges call for 47 country court judges and 16 new circuit court judges.

Business investment remains strong in November

Investment in long lasting goods (these indicate business investment) remained strong in November at +2.7% repeating a gain of +3.2% in October which was the strongest showing in 10 months. Durable goods increased +.7% in November vs. October, which was also a positive indicator of future business expansion.

Consumer spending up in November

Personal income jumped .6% in October, the best gain in 11months. Economists were pleased to see income growth and spending up in November, as a sign we are moving towards a more healthy economy.

Tampa foreclosure rate in top 10

Tampa's 15.6% of homes in foreclosure placed it in the top 10 in September. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale  ranked #1 at 17.8%. Nine of the nation's top 10 spots were held by Florida, with only Vineland/Millville/Bridgeton, NJ came in second at 16.6%.

November home sales hit 3 year high

The National Association of Realtors  reported November existing home sales reached an annual rate or 5.04 million, up from 4.76 million in October. This was a 5.9% increase and the best showing in 3 years. Year to date, sales are up 14.5% from a year ago, and closing in on an annual rate of 5.5 million where a healthy market exists. Prices are inching up as inventories remain low creating more price competition among buyers, and inviting multiple offers in many cases.

Interest rates remain low

Last week average 30 year interest rates were 3.37% up from 3.32 a week earlier. The 15 year rate dipped to 2.65% from 2.66%. These are still near record lows.

New home builders more confident of recovery

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index hit 47, up 2 points from 45 this month. This is the highest level in 6 1/2 years, as home builders are reporting this is the best market since the housing boom.

Mortgage rates dip to 3.32% last week

The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage fell to 3.32% last week.The average 15 year rate was 2.67% last week. The lowest on record is 1971 when rates hit 3.31%.

Christmas travel season may be best in 6 years

It is estimated that 93.3 million Americans will travel over Christmas, the highest number in six years. This is a 1.6% increase over 2011 and just 400,000 shy of the 2006 record.

Fed to hold interest rates down 'til 2015

Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve hinted on Wednesday, 12/12, it will probably hold short term interest rates down near zero until unemployment drops below 6.5%. It is now 7.7%. The FED has said it anticipates keeping the rate down through mid 2015.

TARP funds recovery at 90%

The Treasury Department sold all of its remaining shares in AIG to wrap up the government's biggest bailout (TARP) from the 2008 financial crisis. The sales netted $22.7 billion more than the $182 billion it had lent AIG. With the AIG sale, the government has recovered $380 billion of the $418 billion  (90%) it disbursed in TARP funds during 2008.

Housing recovery half way back

 

 Dewey Mitchell, co-owner of Prudential Tropical Realty, reported in his weekly address on Monday, December 10, 2012

 

· Housing recovery nears halfway mark -The housing recovery is nearly halfway complete, according to Trulia’s Housing Barometer, which in October posted its largest increase since it began tracking recovery 18 months ago. Trulia monitors delinquency and foreclosure rates, existing home sales, and construction starts and compares them with their worst points during the housing crisis and their normal pre-bubble levels. All three indicators showed improvement in October.

 

· Housing recovery is the real deal -U.S. builders started construction last month on the most homes and apartments since July 2008, more evidence that the housing recovery is gaining momentum.

 

· Housing in recovery, will boost GDP -Housing data released over the past few months clearly shows a market in recovery, according to the MarketPulse report released last month by CoreLogic Inc. CoreLogic estimates housing recovery could boost GDP a quarter-percent in 2012 and a half-percent in 2013.

· 

          Consumer confidence holds at five-year high -Consumer confidence held at 82.7 in November, marking a five-year high based on the widely followed survey by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan.

·          

          Existing home sales jumped 25% in October in Florida.

·      

         Pending sales, those expected to close within 90 days, but not yet completed shot up 56.7 in October from a year ago.

·      

         The median sales price increased year to year by +9% to $145K.

· 

         Florida’sunemployment rate fell to 8.5% reaching the lowest point in nearly four years.

·      

          Sales of homes priced at 500K and above have jumped more than +40% in the past year.

 

      Historically, housing recovery in the the U.S. economy has led recoveries in the past.

November Unemployment at 4 year low

The government reported unemployment dropped to 7.7% in November, approaching the level of 4 years ago. the U.S. added 146,000 jobs which was better than expected, and not hurt as badly as had been feared based on Superstorm Sandy affecting employment on the east coast. Economists suggested that had 350,000 people who dropped out ( no longer looking for work ), were counted as unemployed, the unemployment figures would have increased. It was also pointed our that there were  7.6 million unemployed in December 2007, when the recession started, versus the 12 million in November ( an increase of +58%). Concerns over the fiscal cliff, and rising taxes next year, dampened consumer confidence, and brought a cutback in purchases of heavy equipment in November.

Short sales Increasing

RealtyTrac, Inc. reports that short sales increased +22% in the third quarter of 2012 vs. 2011. Short sales are outpacing bank owned homes as lenders try to avoid foreclosure. It was reported that short sales accounted for 65% of the pre-foreclosure sales in the third quarter. Banks are using short sales as a way to avoid the expensive foreclosure process.

Builders' Spending up in October

U.S. builders spent 1.4% more in October, and it was the largest month to month gain except for the 1.7% gain in May. The new spending rate in nearly 17% higher than the 12 year low reached in February 2011. Housing construction spending increased 3% in October driving this rate 19% ahead of October 2011. The rate of spending on nonresidential construction was up 10.7%.