Upscale house flipping increasing

During the first 6 months of 2012, over 100,000 upscale homes were flipped. This was an increase of +25% over 2011. Low home resale inventories, causing a lack of top quality homes, has flipping upscale homes growing in the housing market. Flippers include local developers as well as investors. The returns on flips well outpace the small profits earned on bonds and savings accounts...which is next to nothing.  Upscale flips may take longer to do, but the returns can be substantial when done well.

Unemployment benefit seekers down

Those people seeking unemployment benefits over the past month dropped to the lowest level since March 2008. The Labor Department reported applications dropped by 12,000 weekly to a seasonally adjusted 350,000 for the week ended December 22nd.

interest rates dropped last week

The average rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage dropped to 3.35% from 3.37 the week before. The rate on a 15 year mortgage was unchanged at 2.65%.

Consumer confidence dropping

For the second month in a row, consumer confidence dropped. In  December it fell to 65.1 down from
71.5 in November. Fears about the "fiscal cliff" and higher taxes are credited with this reversal.

New home sales increase in November

New home sales increase +4.4% in November. This is the best rate of increase since since April 2010 when federal tax credits boosted home sales.

Soft Christmas sales cause worry

Economists are looking at the +.7% growth in sales this Christmas season as a sign of a continuing weak economy as compared to the +3-4% that was expected. Retailers slashed prices trying to lure people in but that did not help. Now, the retailers are hoping the post Christmas sales will be strong and make up for some of the short fall.

63 New Florida judges needed

The Florida Supreme Court has cited the need for 63 more judges. Foreclosures continue to clog court rooms. Diminished staff personnel who were cutback in this poor economy has meant judges must to more of the detail work to move cases forward. The court noted" workload associated with the residential mortgage foreclosure crisis continues to impede disposition times and rates in our civil divisions." This need for 63 judges call for 47 country court judges and 16 new circuit court judges.

Business investment remains strong in November

Investment in long lasting goods (these indicate business investment) remained strong in November at +2.7% repeating a gain of +3.2% in October which was the strongest showing in 10 months. Durable goods increased +.7% in November vs. October, which was also a positive indicator of future business expansion.

Consumer spending up in November

Personal income jumped .6% in October, the best gain in 11months. Economists were pleased to see income growth and spending up in November, as a sign we are moving towards a more healthy economy.

Tampa foreclosure rate in top 10

Tampa's 15.6% of homes in foreclosure placed it in the top 10 in September. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale  ranked #1 at 17.8%. Nine of the nation's top 10 spots were held by Florida, with only Vineland/Millville/Bridgeton, NJ came in second at 16.6%.

November home sales hit 3 year high

The National Association of Realtors  reported November existing home sales reached an annual rate or 5.04 million, up from 4.76 million in October. This was a 5.9% increase and the best showing in 3 years. Year to date, sales are up 14.5% from a year ago, and closing in on an annual rate of 5.5 million where a healthy market exists. Prices are inching up as inventories remain low creating more price competition among buyers, and inviting multiple offers in many cases.

Interest rates remain low

Last week average 30 year interest rates were 3.37% up from 3.32 a week earlier. The 15 year rate dipped to 2.65% from 2.66%. These are still near record lows.

New home builders more confident of recovery

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index hit 47, up 2 points from 45 this month. This is the highest level in 6 1/2 years, as home builders are reporting this is the best market since the housing boom.

Mortgage rates dip to 3.32% last week

The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage fell to 3.32% last week.The average 15 year rate was 2.67% last week. The lowest on record is 1971 when rates hit 3.31%.

Christmas travel season may be best in 6 years

It is estimated that 93.3 million Americans will travel over Christmas, the highest number in six years. This is a 1.6% increase over 2011 and just 400,000 shy of the 2006 record.

Fed to hold interest rates down 'til 2015

Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve hinted on Wednesday, 12/12, it will probably hold short term interest rates down near zero until unemployment drops below 6.5%. It is now 7.7%. The FED has said it anticipates keeping the rate down through mid 2015.

TARP funds recovery at 90%

The Treasury Department sold all of its remaining shares in AIG to wrap up the government's biggest bailout (TARP) from the 2008 financial crisis. The sales netted $22.7 billion more than the $182 billion it had lent AIG. With the AIG sale, the government has recovered $380 billion of the $418 billion  (90%) it disbursed in TARP funds during 2008.

Housing recovery half way back

 

 Dewey Mitchell, co-owner of Prudential Tropical Realty, reported in his weekly address on Monday, December 10, 2012

 

· Housing recovery nears halfway mark -The housing recovery is nearly halfway complete, according to Trulia’s Housing Barometer, which in October posted its largest increase since it began tracking recovery 18 months ago. Trulia monitors delinquency and foreclosure rates, existing home sales, and construction starts and compares them with their worst points during the housing crisis and their normal pre-bubble levels. All three indicators showed improvement in October.

 

· Housing recovery is the real deal -U.S. builders started construction last month on the most homes and apartments since July 2008, more evidence that the housing recovery is gaining momentum.

 

· Housing in recovery, will boost GDP -Housing data released over the past few months clearly shows a market in recovery, according to the MarketPulse report released last month by CoreLogic Inc. CoreLogic estimates housing recovery could boost GDP a quarter-percent in 2012 and a half-percent in 2013.

· 

          Consumer confidence holds at five-year high -Consumer confidence held at 82.7 in November, marking a five-year high based on the widely followed survey by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan.

·          

          Existing home sales jumped 25% in October in Florida.

·      

         Pending sales, those expected to close within 90 days, but not yet completed shot up 56.7 in October from a year ago.

·      

         The median sales price increased year to year by +9% to $145K.

· 

         Florida’sunemployment rate fell to 8.5% reaching the lowest point in nearly four years.

·      

          Sales of homes priced at 500K and above have jumped more than +40% in the past year.

 

      Historically, housing recovery in the the U.S. economy has led recoveries in the past.

November Unemployment at 4 year low

The government reported unemployment dropped to 7.7% in November, approaching the level of 4 years ago. the U.S. added 146,000 jobs which was better than expected, and not hurt as badly as had been feared based on Superstorm Sandy affecting employment on the east coast. Economists suggested that had 350,000 people who dropped out ( no longer looking for work ), were counted as unemployed, the unemployment figures would have increased. It was also pointed our that there were  7.6 million unemployed in December 2007, when the recession started, versus the 12 million in November ( an increase of +58%). Concerns over the fiscal cliff, and rising taxes next year, dampened consumer confidence, and brought a cutback in purchases of heavy equipment in November.

Short sales Increasing

RealtyTrac, Inc. reports that short sales increased +22% in the third quarter of 2012 vs. 2011. Short sales are outpacing bank owned homes as lenders try to avoid foreclosure. It was reported that short sales accounted for 65% of the pre-foreclosure sales in the third quarter. Banks are using short sales as a way to avoid the expensive foreclosure process.

Builders' Spending up in October

U.S. builders spent 1.4% more in October, and it was the largest month to month gain except for the 1.7% gain in May. The new spending rate in nearly 17% higher than the 12 year low reached in February 2011. Housing construction spending increased 3% in October driving this rate 19% ahead of October 2011. The rate of spending on nonresidential construction was up 10.7%.

Economy upbeat in 3rd quarter

The U.S. economy grew at +2.7% in the third quarter. This is much better than the 2% that had been estimated. It is also twice the 1.3% rate of the second (April-June) quarter. Business inventory growth, coupled with stronger exports, helped offset weaker consumer spending. Economists agree that if congress gets us past the "fiscal cliff", we could see continuing growth throughout 2013.

Unemployment falls in 201 metro areas

October unemployment rate fell in 201 of  the 372 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. The Labor Department reports they rose 116 metro areas and remained the same in 55. The number of cities
with an unemployment rate under 7% increased to 180 vs. 107 this time last year. Florida's unemployment rate in October fell to 8.2%.

September Tampa home prices up +5.9%

Standard and Poor's/Case Schiller reported home values in the Tampa Bay area increased +5.9% in September (year over year). Nationally, the increase totaled +3%.  Around the country, 18 of 20 major cities have seen home prices rising, with Phoenix leading at +20.4% in his period. This is more evidence the housing market is in recovery, and helping the national economic recovery.

Sales up +25% on Cyber Monday

Black Friday sales were estimated at $11.0+ billion. This was followed by Cyber Monday where sales were up +25.6% vs. 2011 and over $1.0 billion. Sales from mobile devices like tablets and mobile phones rose +10.9%. This is yet another indication of the web becoming a more important shopping resource for consumers. As a result, retailers are becoming more aggressive with their on line deals to protect their business franchise, and gain new volume.

Mortgage primer 101

So, what are the basic criteria and costs for a mortgage today. Conventional 30 year fixed rates hover near record low rates (3.46%, 30 years fixed last week) which those with 20% down and a FICO credit score of 740 or better qualify for at lending institutions.  The documentation for loans today is much stricter than just a few years ago. If you choose to qualify for a 3.5% down FHA insured loan, you will need a minimum of a 620 FICO for most lenders. Taking out an FHA loan means you must by PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance).  The upfront charge is 1.75% of the loan amount, and the annual premium rate is 1.35% of the balance. For perspective, on a $150,000 FHA mortgage, the upfront cost at closing would be $2625 (1.75%) with the annual premium set at 1.35%, or adding another $100+  to your monthly payment. There are also some rule changes as to when this insurance can be cancelled. Buyers are realizing prices have started moving up, and these bargain basement interest rates probably will not last, driving sales and home prices up across the country.

Sandy could contribute $240 Billion to economy

The clean up to superstorm Sandy could reach $240 billion. Experience from past storms shows the clean up, rebuilding, and fortifying these struck communities can go on for a long period. It is estimated these Sandy expenses will range between $140 and $240 billion. For perspective, it is
estimated by the Economic Outlook Group of Princeton that $50 billion in losses would add 0.5 percentage point to U.S. economic growth next year.

Home bargains drying up

A Los Angeles Times article reports that home bargains are becoming harder to find. Competition between investors and first time home buyers for affordable housing is putting upwards price pressure on distressed properties. Things vary somewhat from market to market. However, the savings approaching 25% a few years back have dwindled to about 7-10% for a distressed home, versus a non-distressed property. I have seen more banks and distressed property fixing up properties into a "move in condition" so they can price it closer to prevailing market pricing. East coast markets that still have values are Pittsburgh (-27.4%), Cleveland (-25.8%). Cincinnati (-20.2%) and Baltimore at -20.0% according to the Los Angeles Times article.

37 states report declining unemployment rate

Thirty seven states reported unemployment was lower in October suggesting the job market is slowly recovering. Nationwide, the rate ticked up to 7.9%, but it has declined a full point over the past year.The unemployment rate is below 7% in 23 of the 50 states. Florida stands at 8.5%.

New Homes starts accelerate...best in 4 years

There was a 3.6% gain over September in October new housing starts reaching an adjusted annual rate of 894,000 units. Housing starts are +87% above the annual rate of 478,000 in April 2009, suggesting the housing recovery is well under way. For perspective, the annual rate considered healthy is 1.5 million starts a month.

Florida existing home sales up +25% in October

Sales of existing Florida homes increased by +25.3% in October vs. October 2011. Pending sales ( sales expected to close with 90 days ) rose +56.7%. The median sales price was up +9% to $145,000.The unemployment rate dropped to 8.5%...the lowest in 4years. Nationally, the increase in October existing home sales was +10.9% with the median sales price at $152,200 (+8.2%). There were just 2.14 million existing homes nationally listed for sale at the end of October, reaching a 10 year low in housing inventory. This is putting upward pressure on prices.

Crowdfunding raises start up capital on Internet

His Minneapolis start up company, SmarThings recently raised more than $1.2 million on the crowdfunding site Kickstarter.com. Crowdfunding is a way to reach financial supporters on line and encourage them to invest in a start up company. Last year, almost $1.5 billion was raised by 452 crowdfunding web sites. Kickstarter.com remains the largest having raised over $345 million for artistic enterprises. This year, it will outstrip the National Endowment for the Arts in capital distributions. The Security and Exchanges Commission is expected to release a ruling in January which could cause crowdfunding to explode. The ruling would allow U.S. companies to raise up
to $1.0 million via crowdfunding from small investors who have not been allowed this vehicle due to concerns of fraud. This will change their status from "donors" to co-owners.

Sandy impacts unemployment

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose to 439,000 this past week, the highest point in 18 months. A large number of new applications were filed in the states affected by the Superstorm Sandy. A similar jump occurred after Katrina in 2005. The four week average increased to 383,750 which is a less volatile measurement. Since January, employers have been adding about 157,000 jobs a month hardly enough to lower unemployment. In October, 171,000 jobs were created.

Florida tourism increases in 3rd quarter

It is reported that 21.9 million visitors came to Florida in the third quarter. This was an increase of 3.5% over the same period of 2011. Travel related employment rose 1.5% to 1,020,200 and added 15,000 jobs during the period.

New record low interest rates

Fixed rate 30 mortgage loan interest dropped to 3.34% last week setting a new record low. The average 15 year loan dropped to 2.65%.

Florida retailers expecting surge in shopping

Florida retailers are expecting an increase of +5.2% in Christmas retail sales over 2011. They point to the 32 day shopping window between Thanksgiving and Christmas. If retailers reach this goal, it will be the strongest percentage increase since the Great Depression. Florida retailers are looking to reach $58 billion during this period.

Federal bonds for job growth

The Federal Reserve's October meeting hinted that the FED may start a Treasury-buying plan in  2013 to spur job growth. It would replace "Operation Twist" which is expiring at the end of the year. This new program will be added on top of the $40 billion mortgage buying program initiated in
September to reduce long term rates, and make house buying more affordable. Critics of the FED fear pumping all this money into the economy is enlarging the risk for high inflation. FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke has stated the bigger risk would come from not doing enough to boost a continuing sluggish economy. The slow growth of the economy (at less than 2% this Oct-Dec quarter) is not sufficient enough to help the 7.9% unemployment improve.

Money at historical lows

Rates for a fixed rate 30 year mortgage fell to 3.41% last week. For perspective, payment of principle and interest on a $100,000 mortgage would be $404.04 monthly at this rate.  Lower home prices, these low interest rates, a recovering real estate market, and the probability there will be inflation in the future argue that now is a great time to buy a home.

Suicides halt foreclosures in Spain

In the past 2 weeks, at least two homeowners have committed suicide over foreclosures taking place in Spain. In Spain, people may be evicted when they fall behind on mortgage payments, and the debt for the home follows them after repossession. There have been 350,000 people who have lost their homes this way over the past 4 years. New rules are being considered on how to handle these evictions. Spain's major banks have agreed to suspend evictions as a solution is sought.

Job Openings decrease in September

U.S. employers posted fewer job openings in September, dropping by 100,000 to 3.56 million, the fewest in 5 months.  Before the recession, more than 4 million jobs were advertised each month. For perspective, there were 12.1 million unemployed in September which means there are 3.4 people competing for each new job posting. This is compared to a vibrant economy where the ratio is 2 to 1. The number of people who quit their jobs in September fell to the lowest level in 10 months. This was seen as a negative, suggesting workers quit when they see an opportunity for a better job. The positive news was that layoffs fell.

Home prices rise +5% in September

U.S. home prices increased +5% in September as compared to a year ago. This was the largest increase year over year since July 2006. These price increases were wide spread sending hope for a stronger housing market in the Spring. Low inventories of homes for resale ( fewer sellers ) and more people venturing into the market looking for homes ( low interest rates attracting buyers ) could be the dynamic in play here. Rising prices should encourage more homeowners to sell and lead to a continuing housing recovery underway.

Helping employers meet employee's housing needs

One of the largest assets many employees have is their home. The mortgage payment plays a large role in employee retention. When the mortgage becomes too much of a burden within current earnings, many employees look to make a job change at a larger income. Now, through the help of Tampa Bay Home Benefits, this no cost group benefit program, can help employees review their housing situation and develop a strategy to bring their mortgage to a more affordable level. This is achieved through selling, buying, or refinancing to get them the best situation. Tampa Bay Home Benefits can be accessed at  www.tampabayhomebenefits.com.  Working to bring mortgage relief through Tampa Bay Home Benefits can help the employer retain valuable employees.

Peanut butter prices headed down

High heat and drought caused a very poor peanut harvest in 2011, and prices of peanut butter soared upwards. Good news may be on the way for peanut butter and jelly sandwich eaters...prices on peanut butter may fall this winter as a bumper crop is harvested in 2012. The American  Peanut Council reported that peanut farmers are expecting the harvest to beat last year by +66%. Critical to food banks which distribute a great deal of peanut butter for its nutritional value, lower prices will allow them to feed more people.

Florida needs skilled building tradesmen

The Tampa Bay Tribune reports skilled trades workers has decreased from 691, to 317,400 since the building boom in 2005. Drywallers who made $5.00 per board were earning just $2.25 per board in 2011. Soffit installers who used to make $1.00 per foot were getting 70 cents. Skilled workers are mobile and will go to where the better paying job are. Now, both Georgia and the Carolina's are paying better. The third quarter of 2012 saw 1,537 home starts in Tampa Bay as compared to 6,600 in the third quarter of 2005 at the height of the boom. Builders are in a quandary as they try to meet competitive rates, offer longer working hours, yet still manage their cash flow to keep afloat. If the situation does not improve, there could be delays in new housing construction.

Drywall installers needed in Tampa Bay area

New homes under construction in Tampa Bay surged 31% in the third quarter according to research from Metrostudy. Drywallers had left Florida during the recession for jobs up north, where there was work and higher pay. Now, local builders must try and lure them back. There is a labor shortage in Tampa Bay among the skilled building trades. If builders can't find enough skilled workers to end the shortage, delays will results in area new home construction.

Berkshire Hathaway Homeservices entity clarified

The name Berkshire Hathaway, while not well known to most consumers, nonetheless will give Prudential Tropical agents a very strong story to tell. There are positive attributes associated with the name for both agents and housing consumers. It remains to be crafted, but one can see the outlines emerging. Financial strength, integrity, longevity, respect, entrepreneurship, and brand are among the attributes that can be associated with Berkshire Hathaway. Consumers will come to respect these qualities as they get to know Berkshire Hathaway Homeservices in the years to come.  ( paraphrased thoughts of Dewey Allen, Prudential Tropical, Clearwater, Fl)

Spending levels rising

Consumer confidence index surged to 72.2 last month, the best showing since February 2008. The growth from 40.9 to 72.2 in the past year, is the highest one year increase since 1994.In October, auto sales rose with Toyota leading the way with a 16% increase. Construction spending rose 0.6% in September, and the U.S. Economy expanded at at 2.0% rate in the July-September period, up from 1.3%. Unemployment is still at record levels, housing has not taken the lead in the recovery, and a rate of growth for the economy of 3.0% or better is needed to fuel a sustained recovery. The bright spot is we are at least beginning to see positive signs on the economic front.

America is beautiful

Nothing like a tragedy to bring the best out of our brothers and sisters in America. Sandy has ravaged the east coast. She has not ravaged the "American spirit". New Yorkers and "Joisy" folks are a special breed. I am from "Joisy" and extremely proud of my home state. I have worked in NYC on 3 different occasions during my work life, and came to love the the "city" folks. These folks always look for the way back when tragedy strikes. They get right to it. They wait for no man, government approval, or hand out...they just roll up their sleeves and get to work. There is no question in my mind NYC, and New Jersey, will be "back up and running again" in a very short space of time. Ours thoughts and prayers are with our brothers and sisters, up and down, the path of Sandy. We may be down,,,but we aren't out. Watch these folks rebound, and then take this as a lesson on how we can all bond together to get our nation back on track. We need to work together... and together we can accomplish great things as a nation.  Sandy reminded us we must rely on each other if we are to build back into the great country we have always been. Sandy reminded us "America is beautiful!  

New name coming for a trusted old friend

It was announced today, October 30,2012 that Prudential Tropical Real Estate will be joining forces with Warren Buffet's Homeservices Company to form Berkshire-Hathaway Homeservices. The change will occur in 2013. This propels this new company to the forefront of the industry able to provide even more services to consumers.

Tampa region 13th nationally in foreclosures

Among 212 metropolitan areas that are tracked, the Tampa region has the 13th highest rate of foreclosures. According to Realty Trac, 12,796 homes in the Tampa area received some form of foreclosure activity in the 3rd quarter of 2012. This amounts to 1 our of every 106 homes as compared to Stockton Ca where the ratio was 1 out of every 67...the nation's worst foreclosure rate.
Banks have been holding foreclosure inventories off the market, but a some point they could be brought to market and may have a dampening effect on housing prices. Currently, there is about a
4 month supply of homes on the market in Tampa which is considered a healthy level.

Home values biggest gains since '06

Zillow is reporting the median price of a home went up by 1.3% in the 3rd quarter, the largest gain since 2006. The average median price rose to $153,800 from $151,800. Home prices are rising nationally. Phoenix has the greatest rise climbing 5.9 %  above the 2nd quarter. Upward prices were influenced there by investor demand. Denver and Las Vegas were two other strong gainers.  Atlanta saw a drop of 2.2%, with New York, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Cleveland still declining.

Speaking up for homeowners and wannbe homeowners

I have been disappointed we have not heard more discussion of the housing market in this election period. Housing has historically led us out of recessions. Promoting improvement in this part of our economy would seem to have a large impact on turning us around. How will we deal with income erosion in the middle class, which leads to home ownership taking a higher percentage of take home pay now, vs. 4 years ago? How will we assist ( if at all ) the millions of homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages? What are we going to do to help seniors and first time home buyers make wise investment choices in this difficult market. To me, housing is fundamental to having a strong and growing economy. Certainly, there must be some creative ideas on how to approach, and
support, the housing problems facing America. I probably missed that televised debate.

Mortgage Interest rates hitting historical lows

The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 3.37%, the second lowest ever recorded since they started tracking them. Two weeks ago, the rate had fallen to 3.36%. The average 15 year rate set a new record low of 2.66%.

September housing starts best in 4 years

September was the best month since July 2008 for new housing starts. Home construction rose 15% in September, with an annualized volume of 872,000 housing starts. Construction has risen by more than 38% over the past 12 months. New housing starts are now 82.5% above the recession low reached in April 2009 when housing starts had dropped to 478,000 . House starts have been predicted to hit an average of 750,00 monthly this year, with anticipated growth to 950,000 in 2013, and accelerating to 1.27 million in 2014. A strong market is reached at 1.5 million units. Apartment construction is also on the rise. The largest gains in new housing construction were in the West and South where housing starts grew by over 20%.

Foreclosures drop in California

A new 5 year low was reached in foreclosure volume in California in the 3rd quarter of 2011. Rising home prices have helped ease pressure on homeowners.

Confidence grows among builders

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index reached 41, its highest level in 6 years. This was the best reading since June 2006 before the market crash. The index hasn't been above 50 since April 2006, the point at where the index sentiment turns positive. The index dropped as low as 8 in January 2008. This is yet another indicator the housing market may be headed towards a sustained recovery. Sales of new homes remained at near their 2 year high in August.

Foreclosures drop

U.S.  foreclosures filings dropped to a 5 year low in September. It was the second month in a row foreclosure filings have gone down according to RealtyTrac. It appears shadow inventories are drying up, which is helping promote higher prices, as more buyers enter the market and compete for a lower inventory of homes.

Less Unemployment checks requested

Those seeking unemployment checks last week dropped to 339,000, the lowest level in 3 years. This was the lowest number since February 2008. The 4 week average dropped by 11,500 to 364,000 which  was a six month low.

Consumer confidence hits 5 year high

University of Florida survey: Fla. consumer confidence hits five-year high

Florida’s September consumer confidence reached a post-recession high of 79 – up three points from a revised August reading of 76. The last time Florida consumer confidence hit 79 was in October 2007. The September survey showed increases in all five components that researchers use to assess the collective economic opinion of Floridians.

In September, the component measuring whether respondents’ think they’re better off economically today compared to a year ago rose one point to 62. In addition, the component that measures economic expectations one year from now rose one point to 86, while the component measuring expectations that personal finances will improve a year from now rose one point to 86.
Florida Realtors Industry Data & Analysis: Shadow inventory less threatening

The problem of shadow inventory – homes not yet in the for-sale inventory but at some stage of foreclosure with a likely chance to enter the market –seems less of a threat as time passes. Chief Economist John Tuccillo expects the shadow inventory to continue its decline.

Nationally, JPMorgan Chase released a report saying the U.S. shadow inventory declined by 1.2 million in the first half of 2012. Chase expects the trend to continue and suggests that the same number will exit shadow inventory before the end of the year, taking the complete national shadow inventory down to about 4 million – a reduction of one-third compared to the 6 million in 2010.

Out of the woods

Morgan Stanley Economists: Housing Market Insights – Out of the Woods

Recovery Underway Appears Sustainable:A shift away from distressed towards non-distressed transactions, historic lows in mortgage rates that have buoyed non-distressed home prices, steady declines in shadow inventories, the rise of short sales in distressed home disposition, and the rise of cash sales have all contributed to the recovery in home prices.

Mortgage Credit Still Constrained but Relief on the Way:While mortgage credit remains tight, recent policy pronouncements such as the FHFA’s announced Reps and Warranties relief are steps in the right direction. We are optimistic that mortgage credit availability will improve to some extent – and given how tight it has been, even a slight improvement can be meaningful.

A Strong Rebound in Housing Activity and Prices:Over the past few months, data on different aspects of housing – starts, building permits, sales and finally prices – have been resoundingly positive.

Car sales showing gains in September

Toyota and Volkswagen saw sales gains exceeding +30% in September. Toyota rose +42% and Volkswagen +34%. U.S. automakers did not do as well, with Chrysler reporting +12% gains  followed  GM and Ford reporting flat sales. Nissan was down -1.1%. During the year sales gains had been running at a rate of 14 million units when annualized. September's results translate to 15 million annualized units, and the best month since March 2008.

Home prices continue rising in August

CoreLogic, a real estate reporting agency, has noted that home prices continued to rise for the 6th straight month in August. Year over year, home prices jumped 4.6% in August. This was the largest year over year increase in 6 years. These figures suggest the housing recovery may be sustainable.

Renters outnumber home owners

What does Tampa, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Gainesville have in common? They all now have more renters than home owners in their cities. Renters now exceed 50% in each city. Experts do not see the trend reversing for some time to come. The reasons offered are higher lending standards by banks, foreclosures and short sales have ruined credit scores, and many of the renters remain uncertain as to their future in this tough job market.

Mortgage rates hit new low record!

Average rates on 30 year fixed rate mortgages hit a new low of 3.40% last week. This was down from the previous week of 3.49%. Fifteen year rates fell to 2.73% from 2.77 the week before. These are the lowest rates on record dating back to the 1950's when this information started being reported.

Tampa home prices rise faster than rest of US

Tampa home prices rose 3.6% in July, while the rest of the country saw 1.2% increases compared to
July 2011. Miami enjoyed home price increases of 5.3%. Fueling this is a lack in inventory of homes in Tampa. At one point in the housing downturn, there was 26 months supply of homes on the market in Tampa. In  July, there was less than 3 1/2 months supply. Price increases across the country, and low interest rates, continue to support the housing recovery.

Another week of record low interest rates!

Last week, the average interest rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 3.49% from 3.55% the previous week. This matched the lowest point interest rates have dropped to since recording them
began back in the 1950s. Fifteen year rates plunged to 2.77%.

Economy has bottomed out?

An article in the Tampa Tribune on Friday, 9/21, suggests there are signs the economy has bottomed out. Principle among these is the fact more young people have moved out their parents home in the last quarter. This is taken as a sign of growing confidence in the economy. There is still the lingering unemployment issue (8.1%) and the fact that home ownership in 2011 dropped to 64.6%...the lowest in more than a decade. It is fair to point out the housing recovery that seems to be underway is helping fuel the economy. About 5.6 million Americans ages 25-34 (13.6%) lived with mom and dad which was a decrease from 14.2% the previous year.

Pinellas home sales up in September

The Pinellas County Board of Realtors reports single family home sales rose +23.6% in September. The median sales price rose from $123, 000 to $132,000 (+7.3%). The number of houses for sale declined from 6070 to 5117, year over year. New listings, that are not distressed properties, are getting multiple offers the first day on the market when priced right. It is not unusual to see homes selling above listing price if they are particularly nice.  Appraisers are giving fuller value which builds confidence for recovering market.

Pinellas County, Florida condo sales heating up

Pinellas County Realtor Association reports September sales of condos and town homes  rose +21.7% . The median price was down from $100,000 to 89,930 (-10.1%) and inventory declined by
-21.6%. Closed sales increased from 435 to 534 (+22.8%) and days on market declined from 78 to 52 days (-33.3%). The condo market recovery is somewhat slower as buyers are required to put a full
20 or even 30% down to get financing.

Housing market continues upbeat

National Association of Realtors report gains in home sales last month of 4.8% nationally for single family resales homes. New construction continued to improve as well.

Housing picture getting brighter

Since May 2011, pending sales have increased every month for both existing single-family homes and for townhome-condo properties. In July, pending sales were up more than 42 percent for existing single-family homes and 26 percent for townhouse-condo units, compared to a year ago. Home prices are on the rise in many markets, while the inventory of homes for sale is down.

Mixed bag in the economy

The Tampa Tribune has 3 headlined articles on August 25th that denote the confusion we are all having trying to assess where this economy is going. Take a look:
                                              - New home sales rise 3.6% in July
                                              - Fixed mortgage rates up for fourth straight week
                                              - Jobless claims up for 2nd week
When will we get all the indices headed in the right direction so we can have confidence things are really improving. Right now there is no consistent trend we can predict will continue, and this adds to
the uncertainty for those waiting to invest. It is speculated there is about 6 Trillion dollars sitting on the sidelines, in banks and businesses, looking to invest when return opportunities are more certain.

Fed expresses worry over economy

Federal Reserve Officials are trying to excite urgency with respect to the weak economy. At their last meeting. The Federal Reserve is considering pushing the timetable for any increase in the record low short term rates out past the late 2014 timetable now in place. The Federal Reserve will take no actions until their next meeting in September.

U.S. home sales keep improving

More homes were bought in July vs June.  Resales amounted to 4.47 million homes nationally. Luxury home builder, Toll Brothers CEO Douglas Yearley noted " we are enjoying the most sustained demand we've experienced in over 5 years". The sales increases are being influenced by higher priced home activity, fewer homes under $100,000 selling, and people seem to be feeling more confident and comfortable taking on larger purchases as their financial situation improves. First time home buyer accounted for 34% of sales in July. Typically, a strong real estate markets sees 40% of transactions going to first time home buyers. Low home inventory levels and tight credit standards are still holding back the housing recovery.

The cost of getting a home loan

People are finding out that it costs from .5 to .75% of the loan amount in processing fees. The average is about .6%. This equates to about $600 for every $100,000 borrowed for loan processing fees. Many times these fees ( loan origination, processing, etc. ) are negotiable. It doesn't hurt to ask, or shop multiple lenders, to help hold these fees down on a new loan or refinancing.

3.62% for 30 years...FIXED!

Buyers in Clearwater are hungry for homes to select from at the current, and attractive, prices. Add the even more attractive interest rates and you are on your way to mayhem.  Last week we were the 13th offer, of 14 offers submitted within 3 days of the home being listed. This week one of my buyers received their 30 year loan commitment at 3.62% FIXED for 30 years. Investment money is flowing into real estate and away from other low earning investments. The upside potential intrigues investors and home buyers alike. It looks like a good hedge bet based on history.

Housing is HOT, and Florida is in recovery!

Summer may be just about over as many of you begin making back to school preparations, but things are still heating up in the housing industry. We’ve found numerous articles during the past couple of weeks that illustrate positive signs of a strong housing market across the nation as well as some positive news affecting us locally and around the Sunshine State.

·       The July 2012 Real Trends Housing Report shows that the rate of housing sales increased strongly on an annualized basis over a year ago. Overall, July 2012 new and existing unit sales were up 13.8 percent from a year ago. The annual rate for July of 2012 was 5.224 million, up substantially from 4.590 million in July 2011.

·      

          The average price of homes sold increased significantly rising 6.10 percent from July 2011 to July 2012, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased home sale prices and the highest growth in the average price in seven years. CoreLogic sees housing as a bright spot in gloomy economy with REO sales dropping, inventory levels declining and the nation's foreclosure inventory slowing. The result of these conditions is a balancing of supply and demand, and the beginning of price stability—even price growth.

·       Florida led the nation in job demand in July, with job postings in Florida increasing by nearly 13 percent over July 2011.

·      Florida regained its Top 10 status in attracting venture capital with $94.8 million invested in 11 business ventures in the state from April to June. That's a 168 percent increase from the previous three months when Florida came in at 20th in the nation.

·       Florida’s index rose by .35 in June, reversing a five-month streak of declining numbers according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·      

         Consumer confidence among Floridians rose in July by three points which is nine points higher than this time last year.

This report was developed by Dewey Campbell, Prudential Tropical Realty.

Buy rather than rent may pay off for you

Zillow has released new data that suggests buying a home, versus renting, pays out within 3 years as a national average. Called the "break even horizon" analysis, the formulas vary market by market in
the United States. Zillow senior economist Svenja Gudell reminds us buying a home is a "deeply personal decision", but this approach helps the renter decide " am I ready to make this decision"?

Home prices rising nationally

In 110, of 146 major markets, home prices increased in the first quarter of 2012. The median price increased 7.3%. The national median existing single family home price was $181,500. On June 30, there were 2.39 million homes for sale nationally, down 24% from a year ago.  Distressed home sales accounted for 26% of second quarter volume, down 33% from a year ago.

95% of mortgage holders paying on time

Mortgage deliquency hit a new 3 year low. Transunion reported 5.49% of mortgage holders were behind 60 days or more in their payments during the April-June period. This was down from the previous quarter of 5.82%, and the lowest level since the first quarter of 2009.  Home prices rose 2.2% nationally during the second quarter and home refinancing surged as interest rates remained low.  Still, the national deliquency rate continues well above it historical rate, suggesting homeowners are still struggling five years into the housing downturn.

Consumers upbeat on economy

Both in Florida, and around the nation, people are showing more confidence in the economy. Two separate surveys released Tuesday, 7/31, pointed towards this. A University of Florida survey shows a 3 point rise in consumer confidence (in Florida) in June, and 9 points higher than a year ago.  The housing market's strength was a contributing factor. The median price of a single family home rose to $151,000 in June, vs $147,000 in May. The Conference Board ( an independent research group headquartered in New York ) reported in their national survey, a consumer confidence index of 65.9 in July vs. 62.7 in June, the first rise in 5 months. However, even with these increases, confidence remains at historical low levels Conference Board offical Lynn Franco observed.  

30 Year mortgage rate below 3.5%...lowest in 60+ years

The 30 years fixed rate mortgage intrest rate fell below 3.5% for the first time since records started being kept 60 years ago. Freddie Mac stated the rate at 3.49% down from 3.53% last week. The average rate on a 15 year mortage dropped to 2.80%.

Tampa Bay foreclosure activity skyrockets +47%

The last 6 months (January-June2012) has seen foreclosures in the Tampa Bay area skyrocket (+47%) over the same 6 month period a year ago. About half the nations top 20 markets had foreclosure increases. In the Tampa area, there were 20,951 properties with foreclosure filings from January to July. That equates to 1 in every 65 households. Some see these filings as welcome news, expecting an increase in sales activity, as aggressively priced foreclosed homes come on the market. California and Florida lead the way in foreclosure activity nationally. Seattle ( -24%), San Francisco (-21%), Detroit (-17%), Los Angeles (-13%), Boston ( -12%) and San Diego (-11%), were among those markets where foreclosure activity was decreasing during this 6 month period.

Uneven housing recovery nationally

The national housing market had a rough June, after a strong May. The Commerce Department reported new home sales slipped -9.4% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 350,000, the biggest drop
since February 2011. Sales in the northeast plummeted 60% in June. The speculation is that the poor job market and slow economic growth will cause an uneven recovery in the housing market.

Pinellas Realtor Organization reports on June sales

                           Pinellas County Real Estate Statistics for June 2012

Total residential property sales rose by almost 16% from June 2011 to June 2012, and median sales prices rose by 4.5% over the same time period. Total active listings fell over 30% for the same time period.Financing had virtually no change over the last 12 months as cash accounted for almost 60% of all transactions and conventional financing accounted for 25% of all transactions.

Single family sales rose nearly 17% and the median sales price rose by 8% from June 2011 to June 2012. Listings continued their decline, sliding 32%. The month’s supply of inventory (MSI) declined over 50% to 3.4 months. To put that number in perspective, a 6 month supply of inventory is considered a normal market.

In the condo market, sales were up just over 14% and the median sales price was up 13% over the last 12 months. Active listings fell by 30% and pending sales were down 4.8%. The month’s supply of inventory for condos dropped from 9.2 months to 5.2 months over the last year.

The number of days a property stays on the market rose drastically over the last year, reflecting the

problems buyers and sellers are having with banks. For short sales, days on market increased by 56%,
while non-distressed properties days on market increased by 19%.

Source: PRO, Pinellas Realtors Organization.

July - Jim Chapman's Service for Life Newsletter

Take a few moments and enjoy an informative newletter on many fronts. Some sage advise, soft humor, and an update on real estate are all here each month. Click below and enjoy.

http://hosted.vresp.com/1098311/2bed2c9698/17035/50606166d8/

2/2 Cond0, 55+, Clearwater Lifestyle community

Check out this new listing for a really nice condo in a  very convenient Clearwatern location.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLF-DMF3wjA

Most new home starts in 4 years

Builders started more new homes in June than any month in the past 4 years. This was the 4th straight month of growth, signaling a rebound for new single family homes may be taking place. Permits to build new single family homes reached their highest level since March of 2010. June's growth rate annualized equate to 760,000 home starts, just half of the 1.5 million considered normal.

Brookfield and Prudential bullish on housing ownership

Late last week, Brookfield released the second quarter “Real Estate Outlook Survey”. You may recall findings from the first quarter survey were released following Convention which showed a full 60 percent of Americans had favorable views toward the real estate market. The most recent survey showed that Americans are increasingly confident about homeownership and the real estate market recovery.

Signs of growing confidence are widespread, according to the national survey. For instance:

· 69% believe that real estate is a good investment despite the market volatility of the past few years, up 6 percentage points from the first-quarter 2012 survey and 17 percentage points from first quarter 2011.

· 72% expressed confidence that the real estate market and property values will improve during the next two years, including a 6-point jump among those “very confident” or “confident” vs. the first quarter 2012

· Nearly two-thirds (64%) of respondents have a favorable perception of the U.S. housing market, up from 60% in first quarter 2012.

As Earl Lee, president, Prudential Real Estate, stated, “The American Dream is clearly on the mend.”

Homeownership remains the central component to the American Dream, as 78% of respondents said owning a home was still “very important” – the same percentage reported in the first-quarter 2012 study. A full 98% said homeownership was at least somewhat important. In addition, with interest rates at historically low levels, 96% of respondents at least “somewhat agree” that now is a great time to buy a home – the same percentage reported in the first-quarter 2012 study.

The survey also shows that consumers remain cautious about the real estate market and process, as a full 30% “strongly agree” that the housing crisis reminds them to be more careful about buying or selling a home; up two percentage points from the first-quarter 2012 survey. Another finding that is especially reassuring for us as Real Estate Solutions Providers is that nearly three out of four (74%) respondents think it is more important than ever to work with a good real estate agent for the best success in buying or selling a home (up from 71% in first-quarter 2012).

Dewey and Allen 

( Co-owners of Prudential Tropical Realty, New Port Richey, FL)

( Brookfield is a large real estate holding company who tracks the housing market )

25% of new homes over 3000 Square Feet

As the economy struggles, large homes continue to be built during the worst recession since the great depression. Larger new homes, two story, balconies, man caves, children's wings, and 4 car garages are being built. The number of new homes over 3000 square feet has grown by 33% over the past 10 years. As the market works to absorb 4.3 million foreclosed homes since 2007,  one in four new homes are supersized. Contributing to this is the falling price of new homes, receeding to $267,000
for an average new home in 2011, as compared to the same home in 2008 at 292,000. The U.S. Census Bureau puts the size of an average home at 2480 sf in 2011 up 62% from an average of
1525 sf in 1973. This is also a sign of affluency spending, by those at the top, who have more money to spend, and look for ways to do so.

Refinancing raises bank profits

The nation's leading mortgage companies reported increased profits for first quarter earnings. Profits were fueled by the new refinancing programs. The refinancing index reported a 3 year high in the first quarter. Wells Fargo, the nation's largest home lender renewed over 5 million loans in 2011.

Mortgage interest hits new low

For the third straight week, U.S. mortgage rates declined to a new record. The week ending June 30th saw 30 year fixed rates decline to 3.62%...the lowest on record going back to the 1950's where records started. The average 15 year rate fell to 2.89%.

Freedom to own our homes...remember July 4th

It is not every country where you have the freedom and property rights we enjoy in America. This July 4th, remember those who serve now, and have gone on before us, to fight for and protect the liberties we have. Many have given their life so we may have today's freedoms. It is our charge to
protect these freedoms, and pass them on to future generations. Your vote for competent leaders is a great starting point in America. Be sure you are registered to vote in November 2012.

Supply of nice homes tightening

Sales of previously owned homes fell 1.5 percent in May, according to the National Association of Realtors, but this time economists blamed a tightening supply of homes for sale. Nice homes are
attracting multiple offers even on the very day they come on the market. Homes are also being bid
up from listing price if they are exceptionally nice. There is a "frenzy" to find and make offers on non- distressed properties, especially those that have been fully updated. There are more buyers than there is good inventory.

"The slight pullback in monthly home sales is more likely due to supply constraints rather than softening demand," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, in a statement. "The normal seasonal upturn in inventory did not occur this spring."

May is strong contracts month for central Florida

This chart shows contract for May 2012 exceeded May 2011 by +64% in central Florida.
Reports that Olrando and Tampa are really heating up seems to be supported with this
graph from My Florida MLS tracking contracts.

Real estate price declines slowing in USA

The S&P/Case-Shiller index for residential real estate showed home prices across the US (in 20 states) dropped 1.9% in April 2011 vs 2010. This is the smallest decline since November 2010. In March this index showed prices dropping 2.6%. This again points to a continuing recovery in the housing market.

New home sales hit 2 year high

The Tampa Tribune reports new home sales in May reached 369,000, units up 7.6% from April. This was the best month since  April 2010. The estimate had been 347,000 units. Falling prices, and lower interest rates, are helping fuel the new housing recovery. The median sales price rose 5.6%  to $234,500 compated to May 2010. The increase was led by the Northeast up +37%, and the South +13%. The Midwest was at 11%, and 3.5% in the West. This is another sign the housing market is showing signs of recovery.

All sports FM station coming to Tampa

Tampa will have its own FM all sports channel ( CBS 98.7 ) in August. Content can be heard at
98.7 FM, and also 1010 AM. You can access it online at 987thefan.com. Mike Pepper is the program director. He has been sports program director for 1010 Sports (WQYKAM) for the past 6 years.

Caution... Alligator ahead

If there aren't enough things to look out for when driving, now alligators are jaywalking. Sunday night, a gator wandered out onto interstate 275 near Gandy Blvd. In a period of 30 mintues, two cars
had hit the alligator causing damage to both. One car sustained $2000 worth of damage and another  $200. This is mating season and gators are on the move. Be alert and avoid a gator, if you see one in the road.

Mortgage boom in Florida

Low lending rates have led to an increase in lending applications of 189% in one year. Arizona and Nevada are the only two states exceeding Florida. The average 30 year loan has remained below 4% since December, with the exception of one week. This past week, the average 30 year rate stood at
3.71%, while 15 year notes were at 2.98%. These attractive rates are spurring sales volume in Florida. With these lower rates, homeowners have more money to spend.

Nice homes sell fast

Homes coming onto the market between $100.000 and $300,000 are selling fast. Many of these have
had multiple offers the first day on the market. What is causing this? Non-distressed properties are in
demand. Buyers are looking for "move in condition" homes which are priced well. There is less than a 2 month supply of homes meeting these conditions. So, when they come on the market, they attract
buyers quickly. If you are a buyer, you need to move quickly on these homes.

Wells Fargo and Tampa team up on foreclosed properties

Tampa Mayor, Bob Buckhorn, has joined forces with Wells Fargo in a new $12 million home ownership program designed to convert foreclosed homes into sales. The new program would allow up to $15,000 per home for down payment assistance, or to the neighbors, should they want to fix the home up. The program is titled "Neighborhood Lift"... designed to stabilize communities. Wells Fargo announced it will be lending upwards of $500 million to Tampa homeowners over the next 5 years. Neighborhood Lift does have an income limitation for a family of four at no more than $67,000. If the new owner stays in the home 5 years, they do not need to pay the assistance back. This is a creative way to help rejuvenate and restore inner city neighborhoods.  

Wife vs. Mistress & Sales

A doctor, a lawyer and a real estate agent were discussing the relative merits of having a wife or a mistress.

The lawyer says: "For sure a mistress is better. If you have a wife and want a divorce, it causes all sorts of legal problems."

The doctor says: "It's better to have a wife because the sense of security lowers your stress and is good for your health."

The real estate agent says: "You're both wrong. It's best to have both so that when the wife thinks you're with the mistress, and the mistress thinks you're with your wife -- you can go and sell some homes.

                                                                                                           Courtesy of Realestatehumor.com web site.

Home prices rising around the country

In March, home prices rose in 16 of 20 major cities. This is evidence again of a slow recovery in progress. Phoenix, Dallas and Seattle had the largest increases. Tampa and Miami both registered
home price increases in April.Over the last 12 months, prices had continued to drop. This increase in
April is welcome news for the industry.

Florida on economic rebound!

Highlights from Economic Outlook 2012

“When you can’t make them see the light, make them feel the heat.”
Ronald Reagan

Things are really heating up and we’re not just talking about warmer temperatures. There is a lot more to get excited about in the Sunshine State besides the beautiful weather. Take a look at some highlights from “Economic Outlook: May 2012” compiled by Wells Fargo Securities.

· More businesses are expanding their operations or relocating facilities to the state.

· The shadow inventory of homes is gradually being whittled away, and prices for non-distressed properties have firmed up a bit.

· The gap between Florida’s unemployment rate and the nation’s continues to narrow, suggesting that Florida’s economy is now growing faster than the nation.

· According to a recent study by the National Association of Realtors, Florida has the highest concentration of foreign buyers of any state, with buyers from other countries accounting for 31 percent of all sales in 2011. These foreign investors are primarily from Canada, Venezuela, and Brazil.

· There is a clear return of retiree buyers around the state with Florida seeing the second-largest state-to-state gain in the country.

· Hiring has picked up across the state, with private-sector employers adding 195,700 jobs since employment bottomed in December 2009. The unemployment rate has fallen 2.4 percentage points over roughly this same period, falling to 9.0 percent

· Tampa’s labor market continues to post strong gains. The professional and business services sector remains the top performing sector, accounting for more than 50 percent of the jobs added since the Bay area’s labor market bottomed,

· Home prices appear to have bottomed in Tampa. Data from Trulia shows that the median sales price for existing homes in the Tampa region have increased by more than 10 percent over year-ago levels.

· Tampa Bay appears poised for stronger gains. Tourism continues to grow solidly and the opening of the Dali Museum in St. Petersburg last year continues to win widespread acclaim.

According to Senior Economist Mark Vitner and Economic Analyst Joe Seydl and at Wells Fargo, when we review all of the materials that we look at to assess the health of Florida’s economy, it is difficult not to come away encouraged. Florida is now firmly in recovery mode following one of the worst recessions in its modern history. The actions taken by businesses and governments to help promote economic activity and make Florida more competitive with other states are beginning to pay real dividends and will truly show their worth once the national economy ramps up again.

As reported by Dewey Allen, Prudential Tropical Realty, Palm Harbor, Fl. 

Great Clearwater Seville 2/2 condo

Convenient, lifestyle friendly, sizable, and available describe a really nice condo listed at

2630 Pearce Drive, #107 ( Pinellas MLS # U7541778 ). Attractively priced, spacious, and with

a huge wrap around patio, and a corner first floor setting, this 1450 SF beauty can be your next home.

Tampa Bay Leads Nation in Foreclosures

The Tampa Bay Times reports that once again, Tampa Bay leads the nation in foreclosures. The number of bay area properties receiving default notices rose 18% from March to April, and is up 59% year over year. Miami was second at 38%. Statewide, forclosure filings fell nearly 8% in April. Nationally, there were 188,780 filings, the smallest number of monthly filings since July 2007. Home inventories are very low allowing distressed properties to be absorbed better. There is less than a 5 month supply of homes on the market. As more distressed homes are sold, non-distressed homeowners will feel better about putting their homes on the market in anticipation of rising prices.

Interest rates hit all time low last week!

Can you imagine seeing interest rates down at the 3% level?  They hit the lowest point ever this past week. Now is the time to buy if you will be getting a mortgage. This past week, I had a buyer getting
a loan in excess of $135,000 and is paying less than $800 a month for principle, interest, taxes, and
insurance. This sure beats paying $1200 in rent and gaining no equity.

Non-Distressed New Listings Sell Rapidly!

A new resale, in good shape, comes on the market. It may last a few days. In Clearwater, one came on the market Monday, 5/7, and I called at 8:30 am. I was the first call on the property. I showed it, and made an offer by late Monday evening. The listing agent had already sent 3 seller's disclosures out indicating 3 offers were coming on the first day!  The buyers I have been working with have tried to buy 3 other homes in the past week ($130-$160,000), and been out bid on all of them. There is less than 2 months supply of really nice homes on the market...so when they come on the market...there is a stampede to get there first. This reminds many experienced agents of the hot selling days of 2005. This is a good thing for sellers, but not much fun for buyers. It has to put upward pressure on prices. That is a good thing for the housing recovery.

Nice Homes are attracting multiple offers!

This past week, I have worked with clients trying to find nice homes that are not short sales or bank owned.  On 3 occasions we found ourselves in mulitiple offer situations on the same homes that had been on the market just a few days.The inventory on nice homes is at it lowest point in 5 years. This has already started an upward push on pricing which will most likely filter over to short sale and bank owned values as well. We are seeing signs of recovery similiar to the "frenzy" the industry saw in 2005. If your are a buyer, it is time to get off the sidelines and into this market.

Tourism Up in Tampa Bay Area

Tampa Bay enjoyed a 5.5% increase in tourism during the first 3 months of 2012. Over 1.4 million people visited Tampa Bay for an overnight stay. The Republican National Convention is expected
to attract over 50,000 visitors in August.  Tourism, like real estate, are both enjoying a come back in
the Tampa Bay region.

Pinellas real estate showing improvement in March

Pinellas County real estate statistics for March 2012 showed the single family market was still gaining
strength. Through March, SFH sales are up +32% and the median sales price is up +$12,000. The condo
market was up +21% in March and +54% year to date. However, the median sales price in condos dropped -6.5%  and is at a minus -11%  year to date. Short sales continued to surpass forecloures for the past 10 straight months. Of 481 distressed property sales in March, 58% were short sales and 42% foreclosures. For perspective, in March 2011, foreclosures amounted to 70% of distressed sales. In March, Pinellas County Realtor Organization reported a first time happening where their was less than one home for each buyer. Home inventories in March were down -34.23%  over 2011 at 6985 vs. 10,621 homes. This trend is lending support for prices on existing homes to rebound in 2012.

Non-distressed properties sought after

Properties that are not distressed, in good condition, and between $100 - $300,000 are attracting multiple offers in today's market. There is less than 2 months inventory supporting this segment of
the market. This small supply, coupled with an increasing number of home buyers looking to finance at these historical low rates, is fueling this condition. It is not uncommon for nice homes to have 2 -3 offers chasing it. This is a good sign for the market as it begins recovering.

Short Sales Larger Than Foreclosures

The Tampa Tribune reported on 4/18 that short sales in January surpassed foreclosure sales for the first time. Banks were more willing to take less against an outstanding mortgage than proceed through
the entire foreclosure process. Short Sales accounted for 23.9% of home purchases in January as compared to 19.7% for foreclosures. Last year, short sales were 16.3% and foreclosures at 24.9%.

Foreclosures Increase in 1st Quarter

Writer Shannon Behnken, of the Tampa Tribune, reported in an article on 4/12,  that foreclosure activity rose 26% in Florida, and 24% in the Tampa area during the first quarter, according to Realty Trac. In metro Tampa, there were 10,437 foreclosure filings, default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank respossessions...up 17% from the same period in 2011. Nationwide, there were 572,928, down 2% for the quarter. In 26 states where judges must approve foreclosures, activity increased. Although the Tampa bay area increased 17%, Pinellas County declined 17%, Hillsborough was up 13% and Pasco increased 68% during the quarter.

Low Housing Inventory Spur Multiple Offers

If there is a really nice home for sale, that has been updated, and is priced right...look to see mulitiple offers, and a quick sale. Homes listed in the $100 - $300,000 range like this, are selling very rapidly, and many are attracting mulitiple offers. One home recently drew 6 offers, and wound up selling at $50,000 over listing price. The inventory of homes meeting this description is less than 2 months supply. A normal inventory would be 6 months. This low inventory, and ever increasing supply of buyers, is putting pressure on prices.

Prudential Tropical Realty Transactions Equal 2005

A report on the first quarter of 2011 shows Prudential Tropical Realty enjoying unit sales volumes equal to the 2005 boom times. Unit sales are virtually equal to 2005, but prices are down which produces less revenue on this level of sales. All in all, 2012 is starting off with optimism, as buyers enter the market looking to take advantage of the lower prices and cost of money, both of which will rise sometime in the not to distant future,

Florida Economic Trends showing improvement

Prudential Tropical's weekly report shared this good news on Florida Trends:

·       Florida's unemployment fell again in February, dropping to 9.4 percent, a three-year low

·      Visitor counts are up from the Panhandle to Miami

·      The supply of homes for sale is approaching more typical levels

·      Companies are hiring, expanding and relocating throughout the state

·       Consumer bankruptcies are down — in most regions by double digits

·      Manufacturing is getting stronger

These are encouraging trends to support a recovery in the housing market.

Tampa Bay home sales up 2.3% in first quarter 2012

A review of Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco home sales for the period January thru March show 9145 sales in 2012 vs. 8938 in 2011. This is a 2.3% increase. Encouraging signs show up as unit sales have increased each month from 2627in January to 3462 in March. March saw a 4.1% increase over 2011, the best showing of any month in the quarter. There is a general feeling among agents in the market that 2012 will be a better year, home prices will stabilize, and perhaps begin heading back up at moderate rates. This is a good time to buy with such good mortgage rates along with attractive home prices.

Silver Sunami on its way...Florida to gain

The National Association of Realtors suggests during the next 20 years, over 30 million more
seniors will enter that age group.  They predict about 75-80% of all housing units will be occupied by this age group. To support this growth, over 15 million housing units will need to be built.

It is generally believed Flordia will benefit from this increasing market. Florida boasts no income tax, lower real estate taxes, affordable housing, excellent health care, laid back lifestyles, and homestead exemptions. These make it much more affordable when living inside a fixed income.

New Harp 2 May Bring You Relief on Your Mortgage

If your home loan originated before June of 2009, your home is worth less than your mortgage value,
it is a Fannie Mae or Feddie Mac loan, and the interest rate is 5.25% or higher, and you have been current on your payments for the past 12 months...you may qualify for this new program (HARP 2) to lower your mortgage. Just available in March, you may want to check this out. There is also some help for second homes and investors when certain conditions are met.

February Housing Sales up 9.2%

2012 may well be a good year for the real esate industry. Reports of a 9.2% increase in February sales, vs. last year, is a good sign the recovery is underway. It was also reported that home prices are beginning to stabilize in the top 20 markets. There are those that see at 7-12% increase in housing sales for 2012. Adding to this turnaround is a loosening up of credit. Banks are now loaning up to 3.5 borrower earnings, working with some lower credit scores, and giving more loan to value. If you have been waiting on the sidelines, it may well be the time to jump into the real estate market.

Prudential Sees Good Outlook for Housing

According to the
second-annual Prudential Real Estate Outlook Survey, a full 60 percent of
Americans have favorable views toward the real estate market. That’s up eight
points since last year. Thankfully not everyone is buying into the media’s stark portrayal of homeownership.

The survey shows that signs of increasing optimism are widespread:

· With interest rates at historically low levels, 96 percent agree or somewhat
agree that now is a good time to buy.

· A full 70 percent of respondents have some degree of confidence that property
values will improve over the next two years; with an 8 point increase in
those very confident or confident compared to last year.

· 63 percent believe that real estate is a good investment despite the recent market
volatility; that’s up 11 points from last year.

The survey confirms that despite the recession, homeownership remains a central part of the
American Dream. Eight in 10 respondents said homeownership is very important to
them; only 15 percent said the economic downturn made homeownership less
important.

· Strong ties between homeownership and the community were also highlighted in the survey: 77
percent agree that homeownership strengthens a sense of community.

· Among the generations, 94 percent of respondents believe that finding the right home and
community are crucial to helping their family be happy.

· Gen Y’ers are particularly optimistic about the road ahead with 72 percent expressing
favorable views about the residential real estate market.

· More than 90 percent of respondents said a good real estate sales professional can help them
make the right choices about homes and communities; and 71 percent believe good agent
representation is more important than ever, up 4% from last year’s survey.

Can you handle a short sale within your personality?

My experience is that many people way over estimate their staying power in a short sale situation. If you are paying cash, meeting a bank agreed upon price, and are alone in your offer,
you have a chance of closing within 3 -4 months. If you are financing, good luck, as you may well lose out to a cash offer that comes in over top of you, while you are trying to work out the loan details. We are required at Prudential Tropical Realty to counsel each seller and buyer of the challenges to entering into a short sale...as seller or buyer. I worked on one sale for over 9 months just trying to get an offer accepted. The deal finally fell apart when the buyer pulled out, and the seller ran out of gas filling out form after form for the bank. If you are in the situation where you have the patience to wait ( with virtually no information or communication taking place about your offer ) for 4 -9 months to make a purchase...then a short sale might be your thing. Most people I have dealt with get "antsy" going into the 2nd month of no response. The bank will respond when it wants to respond, in the way it wishes to respond, and you may not like the response, having waited months for the response. Some short sales move along quickly. If you have a negotiator working the sale, they usually have relationships at the bank they can push on for results. If a property has been on the market for awhile, and you have cash, the bank may decide to just take the money to remove their pain. There is no consistency from one sale to the next. Each is a unique life event. That said, make sure you have the real resolve to see the process through, and a detail minded agent who can push things along by applying gentle pressure. In many cases, you may be better served buying a non-distressed property where you know your end cost, and can close quite quickly. I have seen it over and over again where people buy a short sale thinking they have a property that will appreciate. Then they go and put way to much money in the rehabilitation of the property, or find some defect in the "as is" purchase that blows any savings right out the window. If your rehab is not carefully handled, you may well create a home that is overpriced to the neighborhood, and not able to be re-sold for what you have invested in it. This happens more times than you can imagine...even with professional "flippers" operating in the short sale market today. Take your time, take your temperature, spread sheet short sale homes with non-distressed properties to determine if the spread is there to allow the necessary repairs without going over the market price you could expect once repaired. Lastly, I will mention again the value of an agent to guide you through the short sale uncharted waters. You need to do your homework before you make any offer in a short sale transaction. If a seller, you need to research what will happen to any deficiency that is not covered in the sale. The lender has up to 5 years to come after you with a judgment of deficiency, if they have not excused you in writing, for the balance of the mortgage not paid at closing.