Mixed bag reflected in economic indicators

U.S. home prices rose more slowly in September than in August suggesting weaker sales are taking pressure off lower inventories. In Tampa, home prices rose in September by +.02% from August but this was still +14.5% over the year. Consumer confidence fell in November to the lowest level in 7 months. Consumer confidence dropped to 70.4 in November, down from 72.4 in October. There was a positive signal for the economy as Florida unemployment few to 6.7% ( below the national average of 7.3% ) and apartment building permits achieved their fastest pace in 5 years. This suggests that housing will make a stronger contribution to economic growth in the 4th quarter than was originally anticipated. Plans for construction in the South drove these figures.

New home sales slide for 5th straight month

For the fifth month in a row, fewer Americans signed contracts for new homes. The seasonally adjusted new home sales index dropped to  -0.6 to 102.1, the lowest level since December. A contributing factor was the 16 day federal shutdown when the IRS was not able to verify incomes. Rising interest rates, the increasing cost and uncertainty about health care, and the and rising home prices may also have been factors. There is evidence to suggest the housing recovery is stalling at this time.

Florida leads nation in job creation

Florida added +44,600 jobs in the September thru October period. Tampa added +7100 jobs and has added +39,900 this year. The formerly stagnant construction industry lead the growth. Florida's unemployment rate is now down to 6.7% 

16,000 DOW, lower mortgage interest, fewer unemployed offer hope

On Thursday, the DOW closed over 16,000 for the first time in history. Since the start of the year, the DOW has increased +22%, and has topped three 1,000 point milestones on the way. The DOW has more than tripled since its low point in 2009. It was also reported the number of people seeking unemployment benefits fell by 21,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 323,000. US wholesale prices dropped for the second month in a row. Thirty year fixed rate interest rates retreated to 4.22% down from 4.35% the week before. These are signs the recovery is continuing.

Tampa area home sales soften

Momentum was reversed in October as home sales went flat falling 2% behind last year. This comes on the heels of a year long trend of increasing sales. For instance, in September, sales were up +18% over 2012. The controversy over flood insurance and the 16 day federal shutdown may have contributed to this slow down. It was also apparent the large investors who were acquiring properties in large numbers have left the market.

Retail sales encouraging

October retail sales grew +.4%  after being flat in September. Analysts looked for sales to be flat due to the 16 day federal shut down. Falling gasoline prices were offset by stronger performances in furniture, electronics, appliance, and clothing sales. This news was encouraging, suggesting that upcoming  holiday sales may be stronger than first predicted.

No plump in the Butterball turkeys

Butterball announced that it will have a limited supply of heavy turkeys ( over 16# ) this holiday season.  Butterball CEO Rod Brenneman told the Associated Press that there is a mystery why some of its turkeys will not plump up in time for Thanksgiving. Apparently, they haven't ingested grain as well this year as in previous years. Larger turkeys are preferred for carving as they have a better meat to bone ratio which increases yield.